• How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio

    Economics 101 -- "How the Economic Machine Works." Created by Ray Dalio this simple but not simplistic and easy to follow 30 minute, animated video answers the question, "How does the economy really work?" Based on Dalio's practical template for understanding the economy, which he developed over the course of his career, the video breaks down economic concepts like credit, deficits and interest rates, allowing viewers to learn the basic driving forces behind the economy, how economic policies work and why economic cycles occur. To learn more about Economic Principles visit: http://www.economicprinciples.org. [Also Available In Chinese] 经济这台机器是怎样运行的: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZbeYejg9Pk [Also Available In Russian] Как действует экономическая машина. Автор: Рэй Далио (на русском ...

    published: 22 Sep 2013
  • Ray Dalio's debt cycle explanation is essential to understand

    You cannot understand the current economic outlook without understanding Dalio's debt cycle explanation.

    published: 31 Oct 2016
  • 8. Theory of Debt, Its Proper Role, Leverage Cycles

    Financial Markets (2011) (ECON 252) Professor Shiller devotes the beginning of the lecture to exploring the theoretical determinants of the level of interest rates. Eugen von Boehm-Bawerk names technical progress, roundaboutness, and time preference as the crucial factors. Professor Shiller complements von Boehm-Bawerk's analysis with two of Irving Fisher's modeling approaches, the view of the interest rate as the equilibrium variable in the savings market and the perspective of simple Robinson Crusoe economies on the determination of interest rates. Subsequently, Professor Shiller focuses his attention on present discounted values and derives the price for discount bonds, consols, annuities, as well as corporate bonds. His treatment of the term structure of interest rates leads him to f...

    published: 05 Apr 2012
  • Ray Dalio comments on the DEBT CYCLE

    Ray Dalio is an American businessman and founder of the investment firm Bridgewater Associates. In 2012, Dalio appeared on the annual Time 100 list of the 100 most influential people in the world. He is commonly regarded as perhaps one of the top fund managers globally, with $150+ Billion assets under management for world governments, sovereign wealth funds, and some of the largest pension funds in the world. "If you don't own gold...there is no sensible reason other than you don't know history or you don't know the economics of it" - Ray Dalio You can follow Alex Stanczyk on Twitter @alexstanczyk You can follow Jim Rickards on Twitter @JamesGRickards You can listen to the Gold Chronicles on iTunes at: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-gold-chronicles/id980027782?mt=2 You can ...

    published: 25 Nov 2016
  • Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Offers an Economics Lesson

    Bridgewater Associates Chairman and Co-CIO Ray Dalio discusses debt cycles, market volatility and his investment strategies

    published: 17 May 2016
  • Bitcoin and the Debt Cycle

    http://alexfortin.com/freepdf Bitcoin is probably the best investment against an upcoming correction of the stock market due to the debt cycle. The debt cycle is a well known phenomenon and today I explain in detail how it could affect the economy and how you can protect yourself from it.

    published: 09 Feb 2017
  • Japan's Debt Problem Visualized

    A short, visual explanation of Japan's debt crisis by Aftab Singh (https://twitter.com/affalytics). My latest venture: Adlove – https://adlove.com Donate Bitcoin to support our work: 1MDiQaETF12tt7uh4M7xoC7wqMYnhbkqfK Credits: Inspired by the work of Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital (http://www.haymancapitalmanagement.com/). Music: "Sounds Like A" by DoKashiteru (http://ccmixter.org/files/DoKashiteru/21179) is licensed under a Creative Commons license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/nc-sampling+/1.0/). Icons: Largely courtesy of New Mediators (http://newmediators.com/references/new-mediators-icons) under a Creative Commons license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/us/).

    published: 04 Apr 2013
  • Universities unaffordable for all: The vicious cycle of student debt in the US

    Subscribe to France 24 now : http://f24.my/youtubeEN FRANCE 24 live news stream: all the latest news 24/7 http://f24.my/YTliveEN Student debt in the United States now stands at over a trillion dollars. And it’s going up, to the tune of 2,700 dollars per second. FRANCE 24 reporters Philip Crowther and Gallagher Fenwick spoke to Americans struggling to pay back student loans and the lucky few who managed to avoid the debt trap. Our reporters met current students, parents, teachers, and former students in three states: Maryland, North Carolina, and New Orleans. In Maryland, FRANCE 24 spoke to Nina Ogor and her mother. After recently graduating from the University of Maryland, Nina still lives at home with her mother. Several small jobs keep Nina afloat, but she earns just 12 dollars an hou...

    published: 29 Apr 2016
  • Debt Cycle - Short Film

    A project I did in my first year film class with my fellow classmates. Thanks to all who helped us film.

    published: 17 Mar 2014
  • Bill Bonner: The Great Cycle Of Debt - Aug. 13

    Is a recovery possible by adding more debt? Produced by: http://www.HoweStreet.com. Thanks for Subscribing!

    published: 10 Aug 2011
  • March 2017 The End Of A 100 Year Global Debt Super Cycle Is Way

    The Event Is Coming Soon - March 2017 The End Of A 100 Year Global Debt Super Cycle Is Way Overdue By Michael Snyder, .For more than 100 years global debt levels have been rising, and now we are potentially facing the greatest debt crisis in all of human history. Never before have we seen such a level of debt saturation all over the planet, and pretty much everyone understands that this is going to end very, very badly at some point. The only real question is when it will happen. Many believe that the current global debt super cycle began when the Federal Reserve was established in 1913. Central banks are designed to create debt, and since 1913 the U.S. national debt has gotten more than 6800 times larger. But of course it is not just the United States that is in this sort of pred...

    published: 09 Mar 2017
  • Super Debt Cycle Ending: March 2017

    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/march-2017-the-end-of-a-100-year-global-debt-super-cycle-is-way-overdue

    published: 07 Mar 2017
  • Long-Term Debt: An Unsustainable Future

    Visit http://pgpf.org/visualize to experience the full interactive presentation. Introducing the Peterson Foundation's new series of interactive data visualizations. Here we look at the nation's current fiscal condition, with recent efforts by Washington to address the debt.

    published: 19 Aug 2013
  • The third great debt cycle since the gold rush

    RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, recently warned the market that the level of household debt would make the economy vulnerable to future shocks. Against this backdrop, Livewire asked Dr Philipp Hofflin, Portfolio Manager at Lazard Asset Management for his view. In this Exclusive video Hofflin he frames the current market in a long-term historical context to highlight the extremity of the household debt position: “We are in the third great debt cycle since the gold rush in Australia. The two prior cycles were the 1880’s property boom, and the roaring 1920’s property boom. They ended respectively in the 1890’s depression, and great depression.” As also illustrated by the chart below, He goes on to state that: “The current debt boom is much larger.“ Livewire gives investors direct access to the s...

    published: 22 May 2017
  • Video: The Debt cycle - Part 1

    In this three part series we talk to social workers and psychologists to delve deep into the reasons why financial debt is a recurring theme among Indian expats and hear from one man who attempted to end his life twice and the reasons that compeled h

    published: 30 Oct 2013
  • Marc Faber: Kondratieff waves, debt deleveraging

    Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of “The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’” talks about long-term cycles in economics and the current Kondratieff wave. You already mentioned commodity cycles. Economists have long debated the existence of long term waves in economics – the most prominent concept of which is the so called Kondratieff cycle. In your 2002 book you pick up on the idea by guessing where we might find ourselves in the current Kondratieff wave. If you did the same today, what do you think? Are we still in a falling wave? What are the important characteristics to look at? And most importantly, what does it mean for the medium to long-term outlook? So in the 19th century we had several cycles, upcycles and down cycles. Basically the last down cycle as I mentioned would have been in essen...

    published: 07 Aug 2015
How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio

How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio

  • Order:
  • Duration: 31:00
  • Updated: 22 Sep 2013
  • views: 4116252
videos
Economics 101 -- "How the Economic Machine Works." Created by Ray Dalio this simple but not simplistic and easy to follow 30 minute, animated video answers the question, "How does the economy really work?" Based on Dalio's practical template for understanding the economy, which he developed over the course of his career, the video breaks down economic concepts like credit, deficits and interest rates, allowing viewers to learn the basic driving forces behind the economy, how economic policies work and why economic cycles occur. To learn more about Economic Principles visit: http://www.economicprinciples.org. [Also Available In Chinese] 经济这台机器是怎样运行的: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZbeYejg9Pk [Also Available In Russian] Как действует экономическая машина. Автор: Рэй Далио (на русском языке): http://youtu.be/8BaNOlIfMLE
https://wn.com/How_The_Economic_Machine_Works_By_Ray_Dalio
Ray Dalio's debt cycle explanation is essential to understand

Ray Dalio's debt cycle explanation is essential to understand

  • Order:
  • Duration: 4:24
  • Updated: 31 Oct 2016
  • views: 1646
videos
You cannot understand the current economic outlook without understanding Dalio's debt cycle explanation.
https://wn.com/Ray_Dalio's_Debt_Cycle_Explanation_Is_Essential_To_Understand
8. Theory of Debt, Its Proper Role, Leverage Cycles

8. Theory of Debt, Its Proper Role, Leverage Cycles

  • Order:
  • Duration: 1:15:17
  • Updated: 05 Apr 2012
  • views: 77037
videos
Financial Markets (2011) (ECON 252) Professor Shiller devotes the beginning of the lecture to exploring the theoretical determinants of the level of interest rates. Eugen von Boehm-Bawerk names technical progress, roundaboutness, and time preference as the crucial factors. Professor Shiller complements von Boehm-Bawerk's analysis with two of Irving Fisher's modeling approaches, the view of the interest rate as the equilibrium variable in the savings market and the perspective of simple Robinson Crusoe economies on the determination of interest rates. Subsequently, Professor Shiller focuses his attention on present discounted values and derives the price for discount bonds, consols, annuities, as well as corporate bonds. His treatment of the term structure of interest rates leads him to forward rates and the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates. At the end of the lecture, he offers insights on usurious loan practices, from ancient times until today, and describes the improvements in consumer financial protection that have been made after the financial crisis of the 2000s. 00:00 - Chapter 1. Introduction 01:24 - Chapter 2. Theories for the Determinants of Interest Rates 28:11 - Chapter 3. Present Discounted Values, Compounding, and Pricing Bond Contracts 47:50 - Chapter 4. Forward Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates 01:03:29 - Chapter 5. The Ancient History of Interest Rates and Usurious Loans 01:11:08 - Chapter 6. Elizabeth Warren and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Complete course materials are available at the Yale Online website: online.yale.edu This course was recorded in Spring 2011.
https://wn.com/8._Theory_Of_Debt,_Its_Proper_Role,_Leverage_Cycles
Ray Dalio comments on the DEBT CYCLE

Ray Dalio comments on the DEBT CYCLE

  • Order:
  • Duration: 3:20
  • Updated: 25 Nov 2016
  • views: 1953
videos
Ray Dalio is an American businessman and founder of the investment firm Bridgewater Associates. In 2012, Dalio appeared on the annual Time 100 list of the 100 most influential people in the world. He is commonly regarded as perhaps one of the top fund managers globally, with $150+ Billion assets under management for world governments, sovereign wealth funds, and some of the largest pension funds in the world. "If you don't own gold...there is no sensible reason other than you don't know history or you don't know the economics of it" - Ray Dalio You can follow Alex Stanczyk on Twitter @alexstanczyk You can follow Jim Rickards on Twitter @JamesGRickards You can listen to the Gold Chronicles on iTunes at: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-gold-chronicles/id980027782?mt=2 You can Listen to the Physical Edge on iTunes at: https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/physical-gold-fund-podcasts/id1056831476?mt=2 You can subscribe for updates by email and download our podcasts at: http://www.physicalgoldfund.com/podcasts/ You can access transcripts of our interviews at: http://www.physicalgoldfund.com/category/transcripts/
https://wn.com/Ray_Dalio_Comments_On_The_Debt_Cycle
Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Offers an Economics Lesson

Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Offers an Economics Lesson

  • Order:
  • Duration: 29:38
  • Updated: 17 May 2016
  • views: 1326
videos
Bridgewater Associates Chairman and Co-CIO Ray Dalio discusses debt cycles, market volatility and his investment strategies
https://wn.com/Bridgewater's_Ray_Dalio_Offers_An_Economics_Lesson
Bitcoin and the Debt Cycle

Bitcoin and the Debt Cycle

  • Order:
  • Duration: 11:05
  • Updated: 09 Feb 2017
  • views: 1174
videos
http://alexfortin.com/freepdf Bitcoin is probably the best investment against an upcoming correction of the stock market due to the debt cycle. The debt cycle is a well known phenomenon and today I explain in detail how it could affect the economy and how you can protect yourself from it.
https://wn.com/Bitcoin_And_The_Debt_Cycle
Japan's Debt Problem Visualized

Japan's Debt Problem Visualized

  • Order:
  • Duration: 6:46
  • Updated: 04 Apr 2013
  • views: 2159517
videos
A short, visual explanation of Japan's debt crisis by Aftab Singh (https://twitter.com/affalytics). My latest venture: Adlove – https://adlove.com Donate Bitcoin to support our work: 1MDiQaETF12tt7uh4M7xoC7wqMYnhbkqfK Credits: Inspired by the work of Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital (http://www.haymancapitalmanagement.com/). Music: "Sounds Like A" by DoKashiteru (http://ccmixter.org/files/DoKashiteru/21179) is licensed under a Creative Commons license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/nc-sampling+/1.0/). Icons: Largely courtesy of New Mediators (http://newmediators.com/references/new-mediators-icons) under a Creative Commons license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/us/).
https://wn.com/Japan's_Debt_Problem_Visualized
Universities unaffordable for all: The vicious cycle of student debt in the US

Universities unaffordable for all: The vicious cycle of student debt in the US

  • Order:
  • Duration: 12:19
  • Updated: 29 Apr 2016
  • views: 3566
videos
Subscribe to France 24 now : http://f24.my/youtubeEN FRANCE 24 live news stream: all the latest news 24/7 http://f24.my/YTliveEN Student debt in the United States now stands at over a trillion dollars. And it’s going up, to the tune of 2,700 dollars per second. FRANCE 24 reporters Philip Crowther and Gallagher Fenwick spoke to Americans struggling to pay back student loans and the lucky few who managed to avoid the debt trap. Our reporters met current students, parents, teachers, and former students in three states: Maryland, North Carolina, and New Orleans. In Maryland, FRANCE 24 spoke to Nina Ogor and her mother. After recently graduating from the University of Maryland, Nina still lives at home with her mother. Several small jobs keep Nina afloat, but she earns just 12 dollars an hour. That’s not enough to cover her monthly 1,200 dollar student loan repayment. She’s not the only one in debt in this household. Her mother is still weighed down by her student loans. Together they owe 150,000 dollars. Theirs is one of the many shocking examples of student debt accumulated over the years by Americans. The price of an education in North Carolina, for example, stands at over 120,000 dollars for an out-of-state student. That’s approximately the national average. Our reporters met one of the few debt-free students at the University of North Carolina in Asheville. Gray Barrett pays nothing, not a single dollar. He’s one of the lucky winners of the ultimate prize, a full scholarship. Gray happily shows us the complete package on offer at his college. In the USA, a university needs to have it all to attract students and their tuition payments: the sports stadium, the idyllic campus, and all the other bells and whistles necessary to get a young American to sign up for the college experience. But Gray Barrett is an exception. Like 70% of all American university students, David Augustine Jr., took out loans to pay for his business studies degree which he completed in 2009. Our reporters met the man now known as Dee-1 in his hometown of New Orleans. He also owed thousands to Sallie Mae, the company that provides student loans. He became a full-time rapper, and luckily his success enabled him to pay back his loan. David Augustine Jr. has now written a song in which he slams a system that is "out of control". His video, posted in February, was viewed more than a million times in only a week. The Washington Post newspaper even says his hit might be "the anthem for a generation". The rapper now takes his song to university campuses around the country. And each time it touches a nerve – there are 40 million Americans who still have not paid back their student loans. Visit our website : http://www.france24.com Subscribe to our YouTube channel : http://f24.my/youtubeEN Like us on Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English Follow us on Twitter : https://twitter.com/France24_en
https://wn.com/Universities_Unaffordable_For_All_The_Vicious_Cycle_Of_Student_Debt_In_The_US
Debt Cycle - Short Film

Debt Cycle - Short Film

  • Order:
  • Duration: 6:35
  • Updated: 17 Mar 2014
  • views: 293
videos
A project I did in my first year film class with my fellow classmates. Thanks to all who helped us film.
https://wn.com/Debt_Cycle_Short_Film
Bill Bonner:  The Great Cycle Of Debt - Aug. 13

Bill Bonner: The Great Cycle Of Debt - Aug. 13

  • Order:
  • Duration: 24:43
  • Updated: 10 Aug 2011
  • views: 10652
videos
Is a recovery possible by adding more debt? Produced by: http://www.HoweStreet.com. Thanks for Subscribing!
https://wn.com/Bill_Bonner_The_Great_Cycle_Of_Debt_Aug._13
March 2017 The End Of A 100 Year Global Debt Super Cycle Is Way

March 2017 The End Of A 100 Year Global Debt Super Cycle Is Way

  • Order:
  • Duration: 7:42
  • Updated: 09 Mar 2017
  • views: 1302
videos
The Event Is Coming Soon - March 2017 The End Of A 100 Year Global Debt Super Cycle Is Way Overdue By Michael Snyder, .For more than 100 years global debt levels have been rising, and now we are potentially facing the greatest debt crisis in all of human history. Never before have we seen such a level of debt saturation all over the planet, and pretty much everyone understands that this is going to end very, very badly at some point. The only real question is when it will happen. Many believe that the current global debt super cycle began when the Federal Reserve was established in 1913. Central banks are designed to create debt, and since 1913 the U.S. national debt has gotten more than 6800 times larger. But of course it is not just the United States that is in this sort of predicament. At this point more than 99 percent of the population of the entire planet lives in a nation that has a debt-creating central bank, and as a result the whole world is drowning in debt. When people tell me that things are going to “get better” in 2017 and beyond, I find it difficult not to roll my eyes. The truth is that the only way we can even continue to maintain our current ridiculously high debt-fueled standard of living is to grow debt at a much faster pace than the economy is growing. We may be able to do that for a brief period of time, but giant financial bubbles like this always end and we will not be any exception. Barack Obama and his team understood what was happening, and they were able to keep us out of a horrifying economic depression by stealing more than nine trillion dollars from future generations of Americans and pumping that money into the U.S. economy. As a result, the federal government is now 20 trillion dollars in debt, and that means that the eventual crash is going to be far, far worse than it would have been if we would have lived within our means all this time. Corporations and households have been going into absolutely enormous amounts of debt as well. Corporate debt has approximately doubled since the last financial crisis, and U.S. consumers are now more than 12 trillion dollars in debt. When you add all forms of debt together, America’s debt to GDP ratio is now about 352 percent. I think that the following illustration does a pretty good job of showing how absolutely insane that is… Source: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/march-2017-the-end-of-a-100-year-global-debt-super-cycle-is-way-overdue Visit our sister channel EVENT IS COMING SOON https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJcmcStuyZVEkQheqINZjBA Please enter our Subscriber Appreciation Monthly Giveaway - Enter Here: http://theeventiscomingsoon.com/our-youtube-cash-giveaway Please visit our Playlist for additional intel: The Event Intel https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLZX49q1VM8O0p0XzU10aCLsSS92iTVQeg Disclosure https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLZX49q1VM8O0C40VKZcQt-GRdpRaUy4lh Politics https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLZX49q1VM8O0wTVaYupBh1Rq17yto_52t Newest Videos https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLZX49q1VM8O0c5ifCAZSE3J0pRR9BcgUI The Event Is Coming Soon https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNdcqCdkJ-EFv0IEU79MDUA https://youtu.be/Fz4plBSpPNs SUPPORT US USING OUR LINKS! ----------------------------------------------------- http://theeventiscomingsoon.com http://twitter.com/eventcomingsoon Copyright Disclaimer: Citation of articles and authors in this report does not imply ownership. Works and images presented here fall under Fair Use Section 107 and are used for commentary on globally significant newsworthy events. Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for fair use for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research. ----------------------------------------------------------- MAKE DONATIONS HERE http://theeventiscomingsoon.com/donation -----------------------------------------------------------
https://wn.com/March_2017_The_End_Of_A_100_Year_Global_Debt_Super_Cycle_Is_Way
Super Debt Cycle Ending: March 2017

Super Debt Cycle Ending: March 2017

  • Order:
  • Duration: 10:10
  • Updated: 07 Mar 2017
  • views: 60
videos
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/march-2017-the-end-of-a-100-year-global-debt-super-cycle-is-way-overdue
https://wn.com/Super_Debt_Cycle_Ending_March_2017
Long-Term Debt: An Unsustainable Future

Long-Term Debt: An Unsustainable Future

  • Order:
  • Duration: 4:04
  • Updated: 19 Aug 2013
  • views: 3869
videos
Visit http://pgpf.org/visualize to experience the full interactive presentation. Introducing the Peterson Foundation's new series of interactive data visualizations. Here we look at the nation's current fiscal condition, with recent efforts by Washington to address the debt.
https://wn.com/Long_Term_Debt_An_Unsustainable_Future
The third great debt cycle since the gold rush

The third great debt cycle since the gold rush

  • Order:
  • Duration: 3:10
  • Updated: 22 May 2017
  • views: 2495
videos
RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, recently warned the market that the level of household debt would make the economy vulnerable to future shocks. Against this backdrop, Livewire asked Dr Philipp Hofflin, Portfolio Manager at Lazard Asset Management for his view. In this Exclusive video Hofflin he frames the current market in a long-term historical context to highlight the extremity of the household debt position: “We are in the third great debt cycle since the gold rush in Australia. The two prior cycles were the 1880’s property boom, and the roaring 1920’s property boom. They ended respectively in the 1890’s depression, and great depression.” As also illustrated by the chart below, He goes on to state that: “The current debt boom is much larger.“ Livewire gives investors direct access to the stock ideas, research and exclusive insights of hundreds of Australia’s leading investment professionals. To access more exclusive market content and to receive the top three insights each day, register for FREE at http://www.livewiremarkets.com Disclaimer: The information contained in this presentation is general in nature and should not be relied upon. Before making any investment or planning decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise you whether your decision is appropriate for you. Contributors to this show may have commercial or financial interests in the companies mentioned.
https://wn.com/The_Third_Great_Debt_Cycle_Since_The_Gold_Rush
Video: The Debt cycle - Part 1

Video: The Debt cycle - Part 1

  • Order:
  • Duration: 10:32
  • Updated: 30 Oct 2013
  • views: 366
videos
In this three part series we talk to social workers and psychologists to delve deep into the reasons why financial debt is a recurring theme among Indian expats and hear from one man who attempted to end his life twice and the reasons that compeled h
https://wn.com/Video_The_Debt_Cycle_Part_1
Marc Faber: Kondratieff waves, debt deleveraging

Marc Faber: Kondratieff waves, debt deleveraging

  • Order:
  • Duration: 5:40
  • Updated: 07 Aug 2015
  • views: 2880
videos
Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of “The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’” talks about long-term cycles in economics and the current Kondratieff wave. You already mentioned commodity cycles. Economists have long debated the existence of long term waves in economics – the most prominent concept of which is the so called Kondratieff cycle. In your 2002 book you pick up on the idea by guessing where we might find ourselves in the current Kondratieff wave. If you did the same today, what do you think? Are we still in a falling wave? What are the important characteristics to look at? And most importantly, what does it mean for the medium to long-term outlook? So in the 19th century we had several cycles, upcycles and down cycles. Basically the last down cycle as I mentioned would have been in essentially 1980 to around 1998-1999, so approximately twenty years. The up cycle before was between the 1940s and 1980s. You can’t measure it precisely. My sense is that one missing element in the Kondratieff in the late 1990s and early part of 2000-2005 was that normally when the Kondratieff bottoms out, Schumpeter, he built his business cycle theory around the Kondratieff and he explained that usually in the trough of the Kondratieff, in the depression, you have a massive liquidation of debts, and that hasn’t happened, it hasn’t happened. So we can´t say that there has been deleveraging, on the contrary! The debt level is even more burdensome today than it was in 2007. Therefore it is possible that the big debt deleveraging is yet to occur and when it occurs then obviously commodity prices will still be weak for a while. Therefore it is possible that the big debt deleveraging is yet to occur and when it occurs then obviously commodity prices will still be weak for a while. The question is then, if we follow through and say ok, the price of copper went from 60 cents a lb to over 4 dollars a lb and now we are around 2 dollars a lb, if it goes back down to 60 cents a lb, which I don’t believe it will, but say if it did, or if gold went back to 300 dollars and oz., if it did, what about financial assets? Where would they be? Because that decline in commodity prices would signal a huge problem in the global economy and under those conditions I doubt that financial assets would do well, there would be massive bankruptcies among governments and massive write offs in sovereign debts. Greece should write off at least 50% of their debts and even then the debt would probably be too burdensome for an economy that hardly produces anything! So these are signals that I take very seriously and I quite frankly given the recent weakness in commodity prices, I can´t see how the global economy is getting stronger. I just can´t see it. What was still in place until recently is this long term down trend in interest rates. Yes, sure. You see, traditionally the Kondratieff is a price cycle and interest rates follow the Kondratieff very closely. So if you take the last cycle, the peak 1980 for commodity prices and at the same time you had the interest rate peak in September 1981 when long term US treasuries were yielding over 15%. Then we have the down trend in the Kondratieff until 1999 -2000, the commodity prices start to go up but interest rates continue to go down. So that would again suggest that there is a possibility that this entire boom in commodities in 2000-2008 was actually a bull market within still a downward wave in the Kondratieff, it is possible. Interview conducted by Johannes Maierhofer and Peter Matay Full Interview - http://www.marcopolis.net/the-big-picture-with-marc-faber.htm http://www.marcopolis.net/ http://www.marcopolis.net/marc-faber-long-term-cycles-in-economics-and-the-current-kondratieff-wave.htm
https://wn.com/Marc_Faber_Kondratieff_Waves,_Debt_Deleveraging
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